The PtX Allocation Study is a collaborative project between Fraunhofer IEE and CRSES aimed at developing an open-source, sector-coupled, multi-nodal energy system model for South Africa. This project aims to equip planners with a model-based analysis of Power-to-X (PtX) development pathways, linking long-term net-zero energy system scenarios with short-term policies. This high-resolution and high-fidelity model, PyPSA-RSA-Sec, is built upon the existing PyPSA-RSA electricity model. Through this model, a study is performed to identify cost-effective pathways for scaling PtX production to meet future domestic and export energy demands.

The analysis applied a scenario-based approach, developed with South African stakeholders, exploring varying levels of renewable energy deployment, CO2 policies, local PtX adoption, export potential, transmission constraints, and transport and industrial sector transformations. Three scenarios aligned with key national policies are studied: the Current Policy Path, the Resilient Net-Zero Path, and the Net-Zero + Early and High Export Path. These scenarios aligned with South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP), Green Hydrogen Commercialisation Strategy, and Transmission Development Plan (TDP), incorporating data from global hydrogen trade studies and national infrastructure assessments. Promising pathways for renewable energy and PtX expansion are evaluated, providing insights into South Africa’s long-term energy and decarbonisation strategy.